Worldview Security Report – April 18, 2019
18-Apr-19

ASIA

India (Security threat level – 3): On 17 April 2019, Jet Airways issued a statement announcing the suspension of all flights. The decision comes after lenders led by the State Bank of India decided not to provide the airline with interim funding. In recent months, the airline had been steadily reducing operations, and was operating fewer than 10 aircraft prior to the announcement. A bid process is ongoing for investors to potentially revive the company; the bid process is expected to end on 10 May.

Indonesia (Security threat level – 4): According to reports on 18 April 2019, supporters of presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto are planning to hold a rally at the National Monument in Jakarta on 19 April following Friday prayers to celebrate the peaceful elections held on 17 April. It remains unknown how many people will attend the rally, but Islamist groups planning to participate — including the hardline Alumni 212 group — have been known to mobilize thousands of people for previous events. The chief of the Indonesian National Police has promised stern action against any groups planning to mobilize. Even if the rally is held, and is peaceful, heavy traffic congestion is likely in the area.

Analyst Comment: Although preliminary results indicate that incumbent President Joko Widodo won the election with approximately 55 percent of the vote, Probowo has also claimed victory and made unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud by Widodo supporters. A Probowo spokesman stated that the candidate will appeal to the Constitutional Court if the Election Commission upholds Widodo’s victory.

Pakistan (Security threat level – 5): At approximately 0030 local time on 18 April 2019 (1930 UTC on 17 April), a group of armed assailants attacked a passenger bus as it was traveling on the Makran Coastal Highway in Baluchistan province. The bus had been en route from Karachi to Gwadar, when gunmen dressed in Pakistani police and paramilitary uniforms boarded the vehicle, checked the passengers’ identity cards and then forced 16 of the passengers off of the bus and executed 14 of them. Two of the passengers managed to escape. The newly formed Baloch Raji Aaajoi Sangar separatist group later claimed responsibility for the attack.

Philippines (Security threat level – 4): According to reports on 18 April 2019, authorities will impose road restrictions in Manila ahead of and during the Black Nazarene procession on 19 April. Beginning at 2300 local time (1500 UTC) on 18 April, authorities will close the southbound lane of Quezon Boulevard from A.Mendoza/Fugoso streets to Plaza Miranda, as well as España Boulevard, Padre Campa Street and Lerma Street. Beginning at 1600 local time on 19 April, the northbound lanes of Quezon Boulevard from Quezon Bridge to G. Puyat Street will be closed to vehicles. Further temporary closures will be implemented as the procession progresses.

Taiwan (Security threat level – 2): At approximately 1300 local time (0500 UTC) on 18 April 2019, a 6.1 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of eastern Taiwan. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the quake was centered approximately 10 km (6 mi) east of Hualien City and occurred at a depth of approximately 20 km. The earthquake was felt across the island. Falling rocks resulted in the closure of a highway that connects Hualien and Yilan City. In Taipei, the quake caused buildings to shake and prompted officials to suspend the Mass Rapid Transit system citywide for approximately 90 minutes; minor power cuts were also reported in Taipei’s Zhongzheng district. Oil refineries and power plants remained operational following the quake. At least 17 people were injured nationwide, including 15 in and around Taipei and two at a national park in Hualien County. There were no reports of serious damage and no tsunami warning was issued. Several aftershocks were reported after the initial quake, and authorities have warned that aftershocks with magnitudes of 5.0 or higher are possible in the coming days.

EUROPE

Portugal (Security threat level – 2): On 17 April 2019, a tour bus carrying 56 people crashed into a house in the town of Caniço on the Portuguese island of Madeira. The crash occurred after the driver lost control of the bus while negotiating a bend in the road and rolled down a hill into a house. The crash killed 29 people and injured 28 others; the majority of the victims are German nationals. Police officers are investigating the cause of the crash.

Security threat levels range from 1 (Very Low) to 5 (Very High) and are determined using a comprehensive system that utilizes both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The primary factors used to determine a location’s security threat level are Armed Conflict, Crime, Demonstrations/Strikes, Ethnic/Sectarian Tensions, Graft/Corruption, Kidnapping, Political Instability, Government Restriction and Terrorism.