AFRICA

Burkina Faso (Security threat level – 4): On 30 September 2022, a group of soldiers led by army Capt. Ibrahim Traore deposed junta leader Lt. Col. Paul Henri Sandaogo Damiba amid the military’s dissatisfaction with Damiba’s inability to combat an increasing Islamist insurgency in the northern and eastern regions of the country. A representative of the new junta declared on 2 October that Traore is the new head of state following negotiations between the new military leader and Damiba, who resigned from office and reportedly fled to Togo. Demonstrators took to the streets of the capital Ouagadougou over the weekend of 1-2 October and attacked the French Embassy due to rumors that the embassy was sheltering Damiba. As of 2 October, the nightly curfew imposed by the new junta on 30 September has been annulled and Ouagadougou’s Thomas Sankara International Airport (DFFD/OUA) has reopened. Security and political conditions in Burkina Faso remain highly uncertain overall following Damiba’s ouster less than nine months after he came to power in a coup in January 2022.

NORTH AMERICA

Mexico (Security threat level – 4): At approximately 0745 local time (1345 UTC) on 3 October 2022, Hurricane Orlene made landfall near the Nayarit–Sinaloa state line as a Category 1 storm. At that time, the storm was located approximately 75 km (45 mi) southeast of the western coastal city of Mazatlán, Sinaloa state, and was moving north at a speed of 17 kph (10 mph), according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 140 kph, with higher gusts. After passing over Las Islas Marías, Orlene is forecast to continue over western Mexico and dissipate by 4 October. Jalisco state officials suspended classes on 3 October in coastal cities, while authorities in Sinaloa opened emergency shelters to prepare for the passage of Orlene. Meanwhile, officials closed ports located in Manzanillo, Colima state, and Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco state, and banned small vessels from operating through the port of Mazatlán and in the Nayarit state ports of San Blas and Nuevo Vallarta.

Orlene is forecast to produce 150-255 mm (6-10 in) of rain, with local maximums of up to 355 mm, on Las Islas Marías; 75-150 mm in the states of Nayarit and southern Sinaloa; and 25-75 in the states of Jalisco, Colima and southwestern Durango. A storm surge will likely cause coastal flooding along Las Islas Marías and along the southwestern Mexican coast. Swells causing dangerous riptide and surf conditions will affect the coastal areas of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California. A Hurricane Warning is currently in effect for the Las Islas Marías and from the San Blas Islands to the city of Mazatlán. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning are also in effect from Playa Perula to San Blas, as well as from Mazatlán to Bahía Tempehuaya Bay. Mexican officials have issued a “yellow” (medium risk) weather alert for the states of Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa.

United States (Security threat level – 2): As of 3 October 2022, recovery efforts are ongoing in the states of Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina following the passage of Hurricane Ian, which made landfall as a Category 4 storm in the southwestern part of Florida on 28 September. Ian then made another landfall as a Category 1 storm near Georgetown, South Carolina, on the afternoon of 30 September. The hurricane inundated roads and homes, and destroyed infrastructure throughout the southwestern coast of Florida. Approximately 700,000 businesses and homes remain without power in Florida, and 45,000 people do not have access to electricity in the states of North Carolina and Virginia. More than 1,600 people have been rescued by emergency personnel so far, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management. At least 85 storm-related deaths were reported in the aftermath of the storm — 42 of those deaths occurred in Florida’s Lee County. Authorities stated that four people were killed in North Carolina due to the effects of the storm. President Joe Biden will visit Florida on 5 October to survey the destruction caused by Hurricane Ian.

SOUTH AMERICA

Brazil (Security threat level – 3): On 3 October 2022, Brazilian election authorities announced that a presidential runoff election will take place on 30 October after no presidential candidate obtained a 50% majority vote in the election held on 2 October. Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured 48.36% of the vote, while incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro obtained 43.25% of the vote in the presidential election with 99.74% of the votes counted, making them the two contenders in the upcoming runoff. International election observers stated that the election was fair and transparent.

SOUTHEAST ASIA

Indonesia (Security threat level – 4): During the evening of 1 October 2022, a stampede occurred at Kanjuruhan Stadium on the outskirts of Malang city in East Java province — located approximately 75 km (50 mi) south of the provincial capital Surabaya — following a soccer game between rival clubs Arema F.C. and Persebaya Surabaya. Approximately 3,000 Arema F.C. supporters stormed the stadium field after their team lost the match, threw bottles and other debris at players and attacked rival fans. Police officers responded by firing tear gas onto the field and at fans in the stands, resulting in a stampede as thousands of attendees attempted to flee the stadium. The East Java Police Chief announced that approximately 125 people were killed and more than 180 others were injured in the stampede. Authorities have launched an investigation into the event.