Worldview Security Report – February 26, 2019 – Constellis

Worldview Security Report – February 26, 2019

26-Feb-19

ASIA

India / Pakistan (Security threat levels – 3 / 5): On 26 February 2019, Indian military aircraft carried out airstrikes that targeted a Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) militant training camp near the town of Balakot in the Pakistani province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Indian Foreign Ministry stated that the airstrikes killed “a very large number” of militants and avoided civilian casualties. The ministry also stated that the action was carried out to prevent “imminent” suicide attacks in India. Pakistani officials have denied any casualties and have condemned the attack. The airstrikes were the first to be launched across the Line of Control (LoC) — the de facto border that divides India-administered Kashmir and Pakistan-administered Kashmir — since 1971. The strikes occurred after JeM claimed responsibility for a 14 February suicide attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in which more than 40 Indian troops were killed.

AUSTRALASIA

South Pacific Islands (Security threat level – 1): According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, as of 0900 UTC on 26 February 2019, Tropical Cyclone 16P was located approximately 520 km (320 mi) southwest of Apia, Samoa, and was moving south at a speed of 19 kph (12 mph). At that time, the storm was generating maximum sustained winds of 64 kph, with gusts up to 83 kph. Tropical Cyclone 16P is expected to pass southeast of Fiji and northwest of Tonga, causing 4 m (13 ft) waves. Authorities have warned of potential flash flooding on Tonga’s Niuas, Vava’u and Ha’apai islands.

GOVERNMENT WARNINGS

Albania (Security threat level – 3): On 26 February 2019, the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) issued updated travel advice for Albania, which reads in part as follows:

“Opposition parties held a major demonstration in central Tirana on 16 February 2019. The Opposition has subsequently announced that weekly protests will take place outside Parliament every Thursday, and that another major protest will be held in central Tirana on Saturday 16 March. Further large-scale protests are possible. You should check the local media for the latest information, remain vigilant and avoid any demonstrations.”

Nigeria (Security threat level – 5): On 26 February 2019, the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) issued updated travel advice for Nigeria, which reads in part as follows:

“Presidential and National Assembly elections took place on 23 February; Gubernatorial and State House of Assembly elections are due on 9 March 2019. Throughout the electoral period, protests in Abuja and Nigerian states including Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Imo, Kaduna, Kano, Kwara, Lagos and Rivers are of particular concern. As the results begin to be announced tensions could run high throughout Nigeria and public gatherings and demonstrations may take place at short notice and have the potential to turn violent. You should continue to avoid rallies, public gatherings and demonstrations and monitor local media.”

Senegal (Security threat level – 3): On 26 February 2019, the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) issued updated travel advice for Senegal, which reads in part as follows:

“Presidential elections on 24 February passed peacefully, but a risk of demonstrations in Dakar and other cities remains ahead of the results being announced in the coming days. Avoid any demonstrations and areas where large public gatherings are likely.”

Security threat levels range from 1 (Very Low) to 5 (Very High) and are determined using a comprehensive system that utilizes both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The primary factors used to determine a location’s security threat level are Armed Conflict, Crime, Demonstrations/Strikes, Ethnic/Sectarian Tensions, Graft/Corruption, Kidnapping, Political Instability, Government Restriction and Terrorism.